Session 2: Towards Demonstrating Simulation Credibility in Industry: Are We There Yet?

Many industrial organizations rely on modeling and simulation (M&S) in the design process. As the availability and complexity of models grows, more organizations are recognizing the importance of simulation governance to help ensure the reliability and proper use of numerical simulation tools. For some organizations, concepts such as applying M&S towards brand-new technology investigations, digital twin-development, and virtual certification provide even more incentive to improve simulation credibility.

To meet this demand for improving credibility, organizations must show adequate evidence that the models are reliable and credible for their intended use. There are a number of structured verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) frameworks in scientific literature that provide methods for building credibility in M&S. However, these frameworks and methods are commonly not well developed, nor well implemented in industrial environments. Without suitable methods, the task of demonstrating M&S credibility becomes a significant challenge.

This keynote presentation will review results from a rigorous VVUQ analysis of a 3D centrifugal compressor aerodynamic model that was performed as part of a collaboration between Purdue University and Rolls-Royce. The discussion will naturally highlight some observed advantages from performing the rigorous VVUQ, but more emphasis will be put towards examining the unaddressed issues.

The presenter will then outline his biggest takeaways from the issues of the industrial application and share ideas on how to alleviate them. The challenges seen by this centrifugal compressor VVUQ analysis are likely shared by many industrial organizations. There are certainly some remaining challenges and issues, but the presenter hopes that with a shared goal of practically demonstrating simulation credibility, we can find solutions and get there together.

The key takeaways of this presentation are that:

• Structured planning activities, rigorous solution verification, and quantitative validation metrics help build M&S credibility.
• The challenge of informing model end-users on how much to trust predictions must be addressed to allow for industry demonstrations of M&S credibility.
• There are existing solutions, ongoing research, and new research opportunities available for everyone that is interested in contributing towards building M&S credibility.

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