GPU shipments Soar Again in Q4

The growth of PC-based graphics processing units (GPU) shipments of all types worldwide reached 20.5% in Q4 2020 and 12.4% year over year, according to a new research report from the analyst firm Jon Peddie Research. Overall, the installed base of GPUs will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.7% during 2020–2025 to reach a total of 419 million units at the end of the forecast period. Over the next 5 years, the penetration of discrete GPUs (dGPU) in the PC will grow to reach a level of 21%.

As part of its ongoing research on the PC graphics market, Jon Peddie Research (JPR) has released its Market Watch report for the fourth quarter of 2020. Before 2020, the PC market was showing signs of improvement and settling into a new normal. The pandemic has distorted all models and predictions, as has the gold rush in Ethereum. JPR’s Market Watch report confirms that trend for the fourth quarter of 2020, but with cautious guidance for next year.

AMD's overall market share percentage from last quarter decreased by -2.2%, Intel's percentage of market share increased 6.6%, and NVIDIA's market share percentage decreased by -4.37%.

Overall GPU shipments increased by 20.5% from last quarter, AMD shipments increased 6.4%, Intel's shipments rose 33.2%, and NVIDIA's shipments decreased by -7.3%.

Quick Highlights

AMD’s overall unit shipments increased by 6.4% quarter-to-quarter, Intel’s total shipments rose by 33.2% from the last quarter, and NVIDIA’s decreased by -7.3%.

The GPU's overall attach rate (which includes integrated and discrete GPUs, desktop, notebook and workstations) to PCs for the quarter was 113%, down -9.2% from last quarter.

The overall PC market increased by 30.25% quarter to quarter and increased 35.76% year to year.

Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs that use discrete GPUs) decreased by -3.90% from the last quarter.

Q4 '20 saw an increase in tablet shipments from last quarter.

The third quarter is typically the strongest compared to the previous quarter. Q3 '20 was no exception, showing healthy growth.

GPUs are traditionally a leading indicator of the market since a GPU goes into every system before the suppliers ship the PC, according to Jon Peddie Research.

As a result of the work-at-home mandates due to the COVID-19 pandemic, notebook shipments exceeded 230 million units for the first time. In addition, the year-to-year growth was 49% the greatest 1-year growth on record. And that was accomplished with disruptions in the supply chain due to trade wars, pandemic shutdowns and material shortage. The forecast for 2021 will be more modest, ~6%, but still higher than average. Chromebooks made a substantial contribution to growth in 2020, and it is expected that that will taper off in 2021 due to school budget limitations unless the COVID relief package in the US comes through and adds new funds.

The overall PC market increased by 30.25% quarter-to-quarter and increased 35.76% year-to-year.

“Factors influencing the robust sales of AIBs in the past two quarters have clearly been increasing growth in gaming, and the need to outfit home offices due to COVID,” says Jon Peddie, president of JPR. “There has been speculation that there might be a renewal in demand for AIBs due to crypto mining. Anything is possible, but the power consumption of AIBs greatly diminishes the payoff for crypto-mining. Ethereum, the best-suited coin for GPUs, will fork into version 2.0 very soon, making GPUs obsolete. A person would be very foolish to invest in a high-end, power-consuming AIB for crypto-mining today.”

Most of the semiconductor vendors are guiding up for the next quarter by an average of 1.25%. Some of that guidance is based on normal seasonality, but there is also a coronavirus impact factor.

JPR also publishes a series of reports on the graphics add-in-board market and PC gaming hardware market, which covers the total market including system and accessories, and looks at 31 countries.

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JPR’s Market Watch is available and sells for $2,750. This report includes an Excel workbook with the data used to create the charts, the charts  and supplemental information. The annual subscription price forJPR’s Market Watch is $5,500 and includes four quarterly issues. Full subscribers to JPR services receive TechWatch (the company’s bi-weekly report) and a copy of Market Watch as part of their subscription.

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Sources: Press materials received from the company and additional information gleaned from the company’s website.